It is a combination of multiple negative factors that creates a worrisome diagnosis for already fragile economic health of the US economy. A sharp increase in oil prices from $22 in April 2020 to $120 in June 2022. The highest… Read More ›
Markets
Economic Recession Maybe Around the Corner in the US and Europe
Inflationary pressures are becoming less transitory and more long-lasting. Even before the horrific events in Ukraine, inflation was already very high. Additional sanctions on Russia added additional fuel to the fire of already hot inflation. Sanctions on Russia will also… Read More ›
Forecast the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the 1st Quarter 2022
This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for the 1Q 2022. It is based on the linear regression model where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast… Read More ›
The analysis of the stock market volatility and ways to mitigate the risk
Oftentimes a successful investing requires the time commitment, ability, and wiliness to take risk. When it comes to the real life, very few investors have the luxury and wiliness to meet these conditions to become successful. In this paper, I analyze the stock market risk and highlight difficulties to remain calm and rational during volatile times. For risk averse investors, one of the solutions is to have a diversified portfolio. The simple 50/50 asset allocation strategy combines a broadly diversified equity index with long-term government bonds. It is one example of a simple diversification strategy.
Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2021
How much will the stock market return in 2021? Is the stock market cheap or expensive?
How did the international stock markets perform during the Covid-19 recession?
How did various stock markets around the world weather the Covid-19 pandemic? The degree of the stock market correction and recovery was different from one country to another.
The Simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model – Proven to Withstand the Financial Crisis of 2008 and Covid-19 Pandemic
Investors may not be able to control their emotions, but they can control how they invest. For risk averse investors, selecting a model with lower volatility is a prudent decision. A risk averse investor is more likely to tolerate small losses and stay invested long-term with lower volatility portfolio
Chinese Economy Effect on the US Stock Market
How much influence does the Chinese economy has on the US stock market? Coronavirus has closed Chinese borders and air connections with the US and many other countries earlier this year. It is still unclear how long this quarantine will… Read More ›
Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Return for the Year-End 2020
This is my eighth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›
Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2019
Year 2019 could be a very good year for investors. The forecast model predicts the SP 500 Index to closed between 2,891 and 2,906 at the end of the year 2019. This represents the return between 15.36% and 15.96% for the year 2019. If this forecast is correct, the year 2019 could be a very good year for investors.
Diversification Benefits of Gold, Oil and the US Treasuries to the S&P500 Index during the Economic Business Cycle
Gold, Oil, and the US Treasuries provide different diversification benefits when combined with the S&P500 Index. Correlation of Gold prices to the stock market remains low in Bull and Bear markets. Gold provides consistent diversification benefit to the stock portfolio…. Read More ›
Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2018
This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›
Investors Cause Yield Curve to Invert
On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert
Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017
Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.
Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016
As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the statistical analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between… Read More ›
Yield Spread Effect on Bond and Equity Markets
What will happen to fixed income and equity markets when the Fed starts raising its short-term interest rate? History shows that the Fed does not have a strong influence on long-term rates. Usually, when the Fed decides to raise its… Read More ›
Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2015
Based on the analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between 1,905 and 1,935 on December 31st, 2015. This forecast is based on the expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States which is calculated to be between $18,187 and $18,363 billion for the year 2015.
Passively Managed Funds and Heuristic Biases: New Challenges and Opportunities
Passively managed funds can have a similar effect on the economy as systemically important financial institutions
Forecasting the Future Stock Market Performance for the Year-End 2014
It is the Holiday Season and we would like to make a new tradition here at ECNFIN by reviewing the current year stock market performance and looking into the future. We wish you happy and safe holidays full of wonderful… Read More ›
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