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Diversification Benefits of Gold, Oil and the US Treasuries to the S&P500 Index during the Economic Business Cycle
Leave a commentOctober 16, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar
Gold, Oil, and the US Treasuries provide different diversification benefits when combined with the S&P500 Index. Correlation of Gold prices …
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Structural Wage Stagnation Causes Economic Weakness
Leave a commentJuly 21, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar
The US economy has a structural wage stagnation. For the last 34 years, wages have been growing at the effective real annual rate of 0.51%. Consumers who rely on salary alone, cannot increase discretionary spending too much. As discretionary spending declines, economic growth will slow down. This creates a risk for the next economic recession.
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Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2018
Leave a commentJanuary 29, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar
This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the …
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Investors Cause Yield Curve to Invert
Leave a commentSeptember 4, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert
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Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat
Leave a commentAugust 25, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017
Leave a commentJanuary 11, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016
Leave a commentDecember 28, 2015 by Ivan V. Sichkar
As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the …
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Ivan V. Sichkar
Economics + Finance = ECNFIN.COM
