Year 2019 could be a very good year for investors. The forecast model predicts the SP 500 Index to closed between 2,891 and 2,906 at the end of the year 2019. This represents the return between 15.36% and 15.96% for the year 2019. If this forecast is correct, the year 2019 could be a very good year for investors.
There are many reasons for owning a home, but making money on your real estate purchase should not be your main reason to buy. In some cases, owning a home can be more expensive than renting one. Owning a home… Read More ›
Gold, Oil, and the US Treasuries provide different diversification benefits when combined with the S&P500 Index. Correlation of Gold prices to the stock market remains low in Bull and Bear markets. Gold provides consistent diversification benefit to the stock portfolio…. Read More ›
The US economy has a structural wage stagnation. For the last 34 years, wages have been growing at the effective real annual rate of 0.51%. Consumers who rely on salary alone, cannot increase discretionary spending too much. As discretionary spending declines, economic growth will slow down. This creates a risk for the next economic recession.
This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›
On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
