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Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2018
Leave a commentJanuary 29, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar
This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the …
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Investors Cause Yield Curve to Invert
Leave a commentSeptember 4, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert
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Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat
Leave a commentAugust 25, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017
Leave a commentJanuary 11, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar
Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016
Leave a commentDecember 28, 2015 by Ivan V. Sichkar
As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the …
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Yield Spread Effect on Bond and Equity Markets
Leave a commentMay 31, 2015 by Ivan V. Sichkar
What will happen to fixed income and equity markets when the Fed starts raising its short-term interest rate? History shows …
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2015
2December 17, 2014 by Ivan V. Sichkar
Based on the analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between 1,905 and 1,935 on December 31st, 2015. This forecast is based on the expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States which is calculated to be between $18,187 and $18,363 billion for the year 2015.
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Ivan V. Sichkar
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