How much influence does the Chinese economy has on the US stock market? Coronavirus has closed Chinese borders and air connections with the US and many other countries earlier this year. It is still unclear how long this quarantine will… Read More ›
This is my eighth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›
The Fed and its monetary policy have effect on the entire yield curve; the economy and the stock market. By the decision to cut federal funds rate, the Fed signals increased risk of economic slowdown and lower inflation. Investors rush to safety and buy long-term treasury bonds. The entire yield curve shifts down. Lower interest rates are very beneficial to homeowners, consumers, businesses, overall economy and the stock market.
Year 2019 could be a very good year for investors. The forecast model predicts the SP 500 Index to closed between 2,891 and 2,906 at the end of the year 2019. This represents the return between 15.36% and 15.96% for the year 2019. If this forecast is correct, the year 2019 could be a very good year for investors.
There are many reasons for owning a home, but making money on your real estate purchase should not be your main reason to buy. In some cases, owning a home can be more expensive than renting one. Owning a home… Read More ›
Gold, Oil, and the US Treasuries provide different diversification benefits when combined with the S&P500 Index. Correlation of Gold prices to the stock market remains low in Bull and Bear markets. Gold provides consistent diversification benefit to the stock portfolio…. Read More ›
The US economy has a structural wage stagnation. For the last 34 years, wages have been growing at the effective real annual rate of 0.51%. Consumers who rely on salary alone, cannot increase discretionary spending too much. As discretionary spending declines, economic growth will slow down. This creates a risk for the next economic recession.
This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›
On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.
As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the statistical analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between… Read More ›
What will happen to fixed income and equity markets when the Fed starts raising its short-term interest rate? History shows that the Fed does not have a strong influence on long-term rates. Usually, when the Fed decides to raise its… Read More ›
Based on the analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between 1,905 and 1,935 on December 31st, 2015. This forecast is based on the expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States which is calculated to be between $18,187 and $18,363 billion for the year 2015.
The structure of financial markets has changed with the rapid growth and popularity of passively managed funds. Passively managed funds can have a similar effect on the economy as systemically important financial institutions. Trading in passively managed funds may directly… Read More ›
It is the Holiday Season and we would like to make a new tradition here at ECNFIN by reviewing the current year stock market performance and looking into the future. We wish you happy and safe holidays full of wonderful… Read More ›
Today, plan sponsors and fiduciaries of retirement plans have knowledge of all the fees being charged to their 401(k) or 403(b) plans by various services provides. The new disclosure requirement under ERISA Section 408(b)(2) requires all service providers to disclose… Read More ›
The U.S. economic growth measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has significant influence on the U.S. stock market performance and specifically the S&P 500 Index. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis developed by Professor Eugene Fama, the stock market… Read More ›
Starting at the beginning of 2013, withholding for Social Security tax increased to 6.2% from 4.2% that an employee used to make in 2012 and 2011 years. This withholding is applied to income earned up to $113,700, according to IRS… Read More ›
