Category Archives: Economy

  1. Diversification Benefits of Gold, Oil and the US Treasuries to the S&P500 Index during the Economic Business Cycle

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    October 16, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    Gold, Oil, and the US Treasuries provide different diversification benefits when combined with the S&P500 Index. Correlation of Gold prices …
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  2. Structural Wage Stagnation Causes Economic Weakness

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    July 21, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    The US economy has a structural wage stagnation. For the last 34 years, wages have been growing at the effective real annual rate of 0.51%. Consumers who rely on salary alone, cannot increase discretionary spending too much. As discretionary spending declines, economic growth will slow down. This creates a risk for the next economic recession.

  3. Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2018

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    January 29, 2018 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the …
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  4. Investors Cause Yield Curve to Invert

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    September 4, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert

  5. Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat

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    August 25, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control

  6. Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017

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    January 11, 2017 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.

  7. Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016

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    December 28, 2015 by Ivan V. Sichkar

    As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the …
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Ivan V. Sichkar

Economics + Finance = ECNFIN.COM

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