Author Archives
ECNFIN.COM is run by Ivan V. Sichkar and is intended for informational purposes only, to exchange ideas and to collaborate with fellow economists and investment professionals. It is not intended to give any advice, but to express an opinion only.
Ivan V. Sichkar is passionate about finance and economics, fascinated about emerging markets, and a strong believer in value investing. He graduated with Master of Arts in Economics from the University of Denver; has a Bachelor Degree in Economics from Idaho State University, and Bachelor Degree in International Economics from Kiev National Economics University in Ukraine. Ivan has ten + years of work experience at the money management firm and professional designations: CFA charter and FRM designation.
Ivan is giving back to the community by volunteering as Vice President for CFA Society Colorado; prior he volunteered as Chair of CFA Society Colorado Advocacy Council where he advocated for CFA members by expanding our presence in the financial, governmental and academic communities for the purpose of improving standards of investment industry. Also, he helps to organize CFA Institute Research Challenge for universities in Colorado and Wyoming. Ivan is Director of Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) Denver Chapter where he helps to organize meetings with presentations by risk professionals.
He is fluent in Ukrainian, Russian, and English. Currently, he is learning Spanish. His hobbies include snowboarding, tennis, working out, hiking, and traveling.
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Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat
The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017
Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016
As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the statistical analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between… Read More ›
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Yield Spread Effect on Bond and Equity Markets
What will happen to fixed income and equity markets when the Fed starts raising its short-term interest rate? History shows that the Fed does not have a strong influence on long-term rates. Usually, when the Fed decides to raise its… Read More ›
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Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2015
Based on the analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between 1,905 and 1,935 on December 31st, 2015. This forecast is based on the expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States which is calculated to be between $18,187 and $18,363 billion for the year 2015.
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Passively Managed Funds and Heuristic Biases: New Challenges and Opportunities
Passively managed funds can have a similar effect on the economy as systemically important financial institutions
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Forecasting the Future Stock Market Performance for the Year-End 2014
It is the Holiday Season and we would like to make a new tradition here at ECNFIN by reviewing the current year stock market performance and looking into the future. We wish you happy and safe holidays full of wonderful… Read More ›
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Fair Use of Revenue Sharing in a 401(k) Plan
Today, plan sponsors and fiduciaries of retirement plans have knowledge of all the fees being charged to their 401(k) or 403(b) plans by various services provides. The new disclosure requirement under ERISA Section 408(b)(2) requires all service providers to disclose… Read More ›
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Gross Domestic Product Behind the Stock Market Performance
The U.S. economic growth measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has significant influence on the U.S. stock market performance and specifically the S&P 500 Index. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis developed by Professor Eugene Fama, the stock market… Read More ›
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Outcome of Social Security Tax Increase on GDP Growth in 2013
Starting at the beginning of 2013, withholding for Social Security tax increased to 6.2% from 4.2% that an employee used to make in 2012 and 2011 years. This withholding is applied to income earned up to $113,700, according to IRS… Read More ›
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Simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model – Proven to Withstand the Financial Crisis of 2008
Introduction A simple 50/50 Asset Allocation Model is based on a passive two-asset class portfolio. It was built to reduce volatility of returns, decrease risk, and provide relatively stable performance in comparison to the S&P 500 Index alone. This model… Read More ›
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Smart Cash Management Can Decrease Risk and Increase Returns
Do you know that cash savings is a good risk management tool that can improve the return of your investment portfolio? Having available cash to cover your living expenses during unforeseeable future life circumstances will help you avoid taking additional… Read More ›
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Germany’s Favorable Economic Position and Vested Interest in the Survival of the European Union
Germany’s Favorable Economic Position and Vested Interest in the Survival of the European Union The survival of the European Union (EU) is in the best interest of Germany. Germany receives many benefits from being part of the EU: access to… Read More ›
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