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Recent Posts - page 2

• Forecasting the Future Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for the Year-End 2018

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on January 29, 2018 • ( 0 )

  

  This is my sixth annual forecast of the S&P 500 Index return for the year. It is based on the simple linear regression model. The model uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as explanatory variable to the performance of the S&P… Read More ›

• Investors Cause Yield Curve to Invert

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on September 4, 2017 • ( 0 )

  

  On one side, the Fed pushes short-term yields higher. On the other side, strong demand from investors pushes long-term yields lower. Investors may demand more long-term US government bonds in the coming years causing the yield curve to turn negative or to invert

• Fed Makes Yield Curve Look Flat

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on August 25, 2017 • ( 0 )

  

  The yield curve is likely to continue to flatten. The Fed has a strong control over the short term rates through its FOMC policies: setting the federal funds rate and by purchasing US treasuries. The long-term yields are out of the Fed’s control

• Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2017

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on January 11, 2017 • ( 0 )

  

  Based on the statistical analysis and the forecast using GDP and S&P 500 data, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close at 2,375 on December 29, 2017. That is a potential annual upside of 6.1% from the closing price of 2,238 on December 30, 2016.

• Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2016

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on December 28, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  As a holiday tradition at ECNFIN.com, I forecast the S&P500 Index closing price one year from now. Based on the statistical analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between… Read More ›

• Yield Spread Effect on Bond and Equity Markets

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on May 31, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  What will happen to fixed income and equity markets when the Fed starts raising its short-term interest rate? History shows that the Fed does not have a strong influence on long-term rates. Usually, when the Fed decides to raise its… Read More ›

• Forecasting the Future S&P 500 Index for the Year-End 2015

  By Ivan V. Sichkar on December 17, 2014 • ( 2 )

  

  Based on the analysis and forecast described in detail further in this article, I expect the S&P 500 Index to close between 1,905 and 1,935 on December 31st, 2015. This forecast is based on the expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States which is calculated to be between $18,187 and $18,363 billion for the year 2015.

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